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May 19, 2020 at 11:47 am #13839LochSpectator
You juxtapose a female under 30 with a 57 year old man implying that the latter is much more likely to die if he contracts covid.
This may be true but the fact remains that if you are under 60 with no underlying health conditions then the chances of dying if you contract covid are very small. That is not to minimise that this is a nasty disease and we must take reasonable steps to protect ourselves and others.
This is nothing to do with whether you should climb or not.May 19, 2020 at 12:09 pm #13840JohnBlockedThere is so much that we don’t yet know about this virus. And some glimmers of light, like the antibody test with the hope that antibodies will prevent reinfection. A vaccine may be developed and produced faster than any vaccine ever, but it will still be a year at the very least, the fastest previously was 5 years I believe. It will then take a considerable time to vaccinate by priority. We may never get an effective one, we didn’t for SARs but it seemed to burn itself out; although obviously still there and there are treatment options. It MAY burn itself out but we are still learning about treatment options. We are also learning that it can kill very effectively if it takes hold. Roughly 50% of cases that enter ITU went onto oxygen and 50% who do don’t survive. That it is very contagious and easily transmitted. That it is a very lonely death being watched by strangers wearing full PPE even if their names are on the label. We are also just learning that it has residual effects post recovery, there is a growing suspicion that they may be long term for some. Similarly we are learning that children are affected in a different way. It is because there is so much we don’t know that it presents such a risk. It is because we are learning, and that takes time, that time and not filling voids with speculation that risks others is our best defence. BMI is a factor as well btw and I recall a study a long time ago that showed that most of the England rugby team had excessive BMI..go figure. Everything is about climbing.
May 19, 2020 at 1:01 pm #13841LochSpectatorI take on board many of the comments made by Andrew and John. But why then do the BMC say climbing is OK? I have talked to Andrew about this and he essentially says they are wrong but they are the most authoritative source of advice available to us. I think it is quite reasonable to follow their guidelines.
I don’t know Oli but if he is under 70 with no underlying health conditions AND if he goes to a crag which will not unduly upset the locals AND if he climbs well within his limits AND if he generally makes a sensible and considered decision then why not?
You may argue that any climbing will involve breaking the (often silly)rules. Let us not get too precious about this. Every time I go running I probably get within 2 metres of someone. When I go for a country walk I touch stiles and gates that others have touched. We should minimise such contacts but not let it stop us from taking reasonable risks.
People are poor at risk analysis. I would advise you never to drive a car again if it is only for recreational or social use and I will consider you morally culpable if you do. You are a potential killer. Even if you consider yourself a careful driver you can still be involved in a crash or hit a child who runs out into the road. It is utterly irresponsible – the numbers of deaths caused by covoid (even in the worst case scenario) will be tiny compared to the deaths caused by car crashes. Just think about involving the emergency services which will have to attend a fatal crash. I am sure that you know that you are far more likely to die in a crash on the way to a crag than you are if you climb (especially well within your capabilities) Be rational and sensible – leave the car at home. It is your moral duty.
On a more serious note, I am sure we can all agree that although we can state our position but if someone else decides to act differently then we must respect that decision.May 19, 2020 at 2:21 pm #13842JohnBlockedThe BMC are wrong. Simple. For all the reasons Andrew has posted. And this just isn’t the same as driving a car. If driving cars killed circa 40,000 people in under two months there would be an outcry. And actually killed whilst there were restrictions on buying and driving cars. The Blitz only killed 32,000 and that took nearly a year. You just cannot compare this to the flu or anything else. Yes it is down to individual risk assessment and choice. If someone climbs with a friend and they meet the risk criteria, take protective precautions and miraculously stay apart a reasonable distance then not only is that an amazing achievement in a sport like ours, yes it is their choice. But if they don’t, if they have an accident, if they help transmission then they are removing that choice from someone else. Just because others bend the rules it is not our freedom of choice to do similar. Remember, we are able to have this debate because some freedoms have had to be limited not in spite of them. I will not judge others if they make the choice to climb. Just don’t put the Club’s name under the activity until access is accepted and the lock-down is properly relaxed. Which it very clearly hasn’t been.
May 19, 2020 at 4:19 pm #13843AndrewSpectatorThe BMC have made three grievous errors.
Firstly. Both the hillwalking and the climbing guidance are written from a “me, me” point of view and there is no reference in these to local communities / parking / future relationships.
Second. We see in the political sphere how any complex statement gets translated down to a simple headline or slogan. The BMC has produced complex climbing guidelines. It must know, or ought to realise, that this will get translated into “the BMC say climbing is OK” and many people will ignore the nuances.
Thirdly. The BMC have chosen a tactic of trying to weave and wriggle climbing to fit current guidelines. For example ” there will be numerous challenges in staying 2m apart from others and these need to be planned for in advance.” Who really believes that the majority of climbers, the majority of the time, can achieve this whilst doing all the cleaning etc etc. So either the BMC has got carried away and not paused to reflect how things will actually be, or they do realise folk often won’t succeed or bother, and they are happy to provide a fig leaf.
I would have preferred a BMC with the honesty, cojones, and priority to the national interest, to say that taking account of the practicalities and behaviour, we should for the time being stay our hand.
This is not the first time I have been disappointed with the BMC. Or the second time. Or even the third time. So the pedestal upon which I put them, is only a very small one. And right at the bottom of the garden
ANDREW
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